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Amazon har store globale vækstmuligheder

R.J. Hottovy, CFA 27/05/2015
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Morningstars Fair Value Estimat: 440 USD

Investeringsanalyse, R.J. Hottovy, 27-04-2015 

Amazon has played a key role in the structural shift away from brick-and-mortar retail, and it may lay waste to many other retailers in the years to come. Without the cost burden of physical stores, Amazon can price below traditional rivals and drive recurring traffic online. Even with online sales tax collection, we believe Amazon will maintain its consumer proposition through other means, including the convenience of Amazon Prime's expedited shipping and expanding digital content library. Aided by the network effect inherent in 278 million active users and recent fulfillment infrastructure, technology, and content investments, Amazon owns one of the wider economic moats in the consumer sector and is likely to remain a disruptive force in retail, digital media, and cloud computing. 

Amazon's growth potential is undeniable. Key top-line metrics--including active users (a 21% compound annual growth rate the past five years), total physical and digital units sold (36% CAGR), and third-party units sold (46% CAGR)--continue to outpace global e-commerce trends, suggesting that Amazon is gaining share while fortifying its network effect. Nevertheless, with essentially break-even operating margins in 2014 (1.9% excluding stock-based compensation and amortization of intangibles), our fair value estimate seemingly requires a leap of faith based on whether Amazon will be able to monetize its growth.

We acknowledge that Amazon's margin expansion is less visible than its growth trajectory given its investment cycle, including international fulfillment infrastructure and content deals, AmazonFresh, tablets and other hardware, and new delivery capacity and technologies. Admittedly, some of the company's capital decisions haven't yielded strong returns (the Fire Phone, in particular). However, based on the strength of its network effect, we remain optimistic that Amazon can exceed 4.5% operating margins by 2019 (6.0% excluding stock-based compensation and amortization of intangibles), driven by Amazon Prime memberships and fee increases, monetization of Amazon Web Services, fulfillment center scale ("getting closer to the consumer"), and third-party sales.

Bulls and bears say

Bulls say

- Amazon dominates the North American online retail landscape with 2014 product sales of almost $50 billion (excluding services), roughly equal the next eight closest nonauction competitors combined.

- With more than half of the world's Internet users coming from developing markets, Amazon has sizable global growth opportunities.

- Kindle products and complementary devices like Fire TV and Amazon Dash represent intriguing customer acquisition and retention tools that capitalize on the shift to digital media while also promoting Prime memberships and cloud computing capabilities.

Bears say

- Amazon's margin expansion will likely be relatively slow and at times uneven given its current investment cycle.

- We believe the market will be hesitant to reward the stock a premium without seeing stronger returns on recent capital investments. With an equity component common in many employees' compensation structures, we believe the company runs the risk of losing key personnel without stronger ROIC metrics.

- International growth brings unique challenges, including changing e-commerce laws, infrastructure investments, and incumbent competition in some overseas markets.

 

©2015 Morningstar. All rights reserved. The information, data, analyses, and opinions contained herein (1) are proprietary to Morningstar, Inc. and its affiliates (collectively, “Morningstar”), (2) may not be copied or redis­tributed, (3) do not constitute investment advice offered by Morningstar (4) are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security, and (5) are not warranted to be accurate, complete, or timely. Certain information may be self-reported by the investment vehicle and not subject to independent verification. Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages, or other losses resulting from, or related to, this information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 

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Om forfatteren

R.J. Hottovy, CFA  R. J. Hottovy, CFA, is a director of equity analysis with Morningstar.

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