Læs hele analysen af Novo Nordisk her.
Investeringsanalyse, 9. februar, Karen Andersen
As a pioneer in diabetes care, Novo has been in the business for more than 85 years and claims 27% of the more than $40 billion branded diabetes treatment market. The prevalence of diabetes is expected to soar in the coming decades as a result of an increasingly overweight and aging population. Insulin need will grow as more patients are diagnosed with and treated for diabetes, and as patients require more-intense regimens as their disease progresses. Demographic trends are strengthened by a market shift toward modern insulin analogs (such as Novo's Levemir and NovoLog), which offer improved efficacy, safety, and convenience for patients, allowing the firm to charge roughly double the price of human insulin despite similar production costs. Novo also markets GLP-1 analog Victoza, which has leading share in a class of drugs that bridges the evolution of therapy from orals to insulin. The firm's ultra-long-acting insulin analog Tresiba also appears to offer greater dosing flexibility and less risk of hypoglycemia than Sanofi's top-selling Lantus.
However, regulatory and competitive pressures could weigh on Novo. While Tresiba is approved in Europe and Japan, a complete response letter from the Food and Drug Administration requesting a cardiovascular outcomes trial will probably delay U.S. launch until 2016. This opens the door for new competition from Sanofi and Eli Lilly as well, and we expect Novo to struggle to gain share in the near term in the long-acting segment, which constitutes more than 50% of a more than $20 billion insulin market. We also expect that Lilly's Trulicity, approved in the U.S. in 2014, could serve as a strong competitor to Victoza.
That said, we are confident in the long-term strength of Novo's economic moat and positioning in the diabetes market. The firm has a full line of next-generation products in its drug pipeline that promise to improve the efficacy, safety, and convenience of diabetes treatment. Novo is also leveraging its expertise with therapeutic proteins in areas like hemophilia, and high-margin biopharmaceutical products like NovoSeven in hemophilia and growth hormone Norditropin are sizable contributors to revenue.
Bulls and Bears say
Bulls say
- The increased prevalence of obesity and patient conversion to pricier modern insulin offerings should expand the insulin market by more than 6% annually over the next five years, based largely on volume.
- With a promising pipeline full of next-generation insulins, Novo is well positioned to defend its formidable diabetes market share in the long run.
- Novo's prowess developing therapeutic proteins has led to the creation of a highly profitable line of biopharmaceutical products for hemophilia and other disorders, helping to diversify its top line and further boost margins.
Bears say
- Tresiba, Ryzodeg, and Xultophy won't reach the lucrative U.S. market until at least 2016, allowing Sanofi to continue to dominate with Lantus and introduce new insulin offering Toujeo in the interim.
- Novo and its insulin market peers have enjoyed tremendous U.S. pricing power in recent years, but the passing of the patent cliff and increased consolidation of PBMs could limit this power in the future.
- Novo's Victoza has been a strong growth driver, but exclusion from the Express Scripts formulary in 2014 and the introduction of other potent GLP-1 analogs could weigh on growth.
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