Efter en periode med nedadgående profitabilitet har Lundbeck ompositioneret sig

Price/Fair Value ratio of 1,08 with a Narrow Moat Rating

Investeringskommentar, Kelsey Tsai, Eq. Analyst, 25 August 2016

After a period of sliding profitability due to the company’s entrenchments in the declining central nervous system space and no-growth European market, Lundbeck is repositioning itself for future growth. The company was slow to derisk its portfolio against its European exposure, where drug reimbursement pressure and key patent losses on Cipralex/Lexapro (depression/anxiety) and Ebixa (Alzheimer’s disease) eroded its performance. The company has since shifted into the higher-margin U.S. drug market, which now accounts for over 50% of sales. We still view Lundbeck’s CNS focus with trepidation, as the space faces steep generic competition and increasing pressure from payers. However, a more diversified portfolio and pipeline, along with promising areas of product differentiation, give us confidence in management’s ability to reorient the ship.

Our concern with the CNS space lies with the products’ marketability, rather than approvability. Lundbeck has done an admirable job progressing candidates and gaining regulatory approval, but we worry about the commercial potential of the new treatments. We believe the antidepressant and antipsychotic markets face increased generic utilization, but the firm has recently started to build out its Alzheimer’s franchise, in addition to making strides to differentiate its products. Lundbeck's phase 3 candidate Idalopirdine (selective 5-HT6 receptor antagonist for Alzheimer’s) seems highly promising, although market approval is equally uncertain.

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