Lundbeck skønnes overvurderet af Morningstar med en Price/Fair Value på 1,67

Med en Price/Fair Value på 1,67 vurderes Lundbeck af Morningstar til at være overvurderet. Vurderingen baseres bl.a. på patentudløb, hvorfor der nu lovligt kan fremstilles kopivarer, der potentielt kan udhule Lundbecks position.

Karen Andersen, CFA 18/02/2016

Investeringskommentar, Karen Andersen, Strategist, 11/02/2016

While Lundbeck’s 2015 profitability remained in the red thanks to strong generic erosion of Alzheimer's drug Ebixa and depression drug Cipralex/Lexapro sales, the company surpassed its meager expectations for the year. An aggressive cost-reduction strategy under the leadership of new CEO Kare Schultz, coupled with a strong U.S. dollar, contributed to Lundbeck’s surprising performance. Management expects to reach profitability in 2016, although we remain concerned about the amount of product revenue exposed to generic threats. We plan on raising our $145 fair value estimate to account for higher growth in the firm’s key products, which contribute approximately 32% of current revenue. However, we still see shares as overvalued at recent prices. We see no change to our narrow economic moat and negative trend ratings, as the effect of patent losses and a highly competitive CNS market are likely to weigh on Lundbeck’s pricing power and returns on invested capital.

Total revenue for the year was stagnant compared with 2014 on a constant-currency basis, while the strong U.S. dollar pushed reported revenue growth to 8%. U.S. sales drove Lundbeck’s performance, partially offset by heavy generic declines in European and international markets. Solid uptake of Abilify Maintena, Northera, Brintellix and newly launched Rexulti adds promise to the firm’s turnaround story. The company's restructuring program--with the aim of cutting operational costs by DKK 3 billion by 2017--is ahead of schedule. We believe productivity and margin gains will be crucial in order for Lundbeck to successfully move past the off-patent losses of key products over the next few years. The contraction of low-margin products, namely Azilect (Parkinson’s disease) and Xenazine (Huntington’s disease), owing to generic competition, should support margin expansion as higher-margin pipeline products enter the market.

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Karen Andersen, CFA  Karen Andersen, CFA, is a senior stock analyst with Morningstar.

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