Kort efter sin ankomst blev varslet større besparelser fra Lundbeck's nye direktør

Morningstars fair value estimat er justeret til DKK 120 fra 115. Vi forventer flad indtjening i 2015, men vækst igen fra 2016.

Karen Andersen 31/08/2015

Investeringskommentar, Karen Andersen, CFA, 19/08/2015

Lundbeck's new CEO, Kare Schultz, wasted little time flexing his operational expertise with the announcement of several cost-reduction initiatives. Management
updated its modest full-year guidance to reflect a promising uptick in sales, driven by Onfi (epilepsy) and Xenazine (Huntington's disease) in the United States,
increasing estimates for core revenue to DKK 14 billion from DKK 13.2 billion-13.7 billion and core EBIT to DKK 500 million from break-even levels. We plan on adjusting our model forecasts, which may affect our current DKK 120 fair value estimate. Schultz has laid an aggressive blueprint for Lundbeck's future, and evidence of successful implementation will buoy our outlook on the firm's competitive advantage. In the meantime, we reaffirm our narrow moat rating as the firm attempts to make a turnaround amid the harsh generic erosion on its former
lead drug, Cipralex.

Generic competition to Xenazine and Onfi weighed on product sales, and recent sales traction with Abilify Maintena (schizophrenia) and Brintellix (depression) in key markets only partly countered this headwind. As a result, Lundbeck's core revenue declined 5% in local currencies, and currency tailwinds led to 5.2% growth to DKK 3.63 billion as reported.

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