Den fulde analyse af McDonald's kan læses her.
Analyst Note, R.J. Hottovy, 21 October 2014
Although expectations for McDonald's were low following recent U.S. comparable sales trends and external issues in international markets (food supplier issues in China, geopolitical issues in Russia), the third-quarter update paints a picture of a company struggling to keep pace with evolving consumer tastes and a competitive global restaurant landscape. The comparable sales decline of 3.3% (-3.3% U.S., -1.4% Europe, -9.9% APMEA) was in line with our expectations, though combined operating margins were a bit worse than forecast (29.7%, a decline of 330 basis points) due to temporary external factors. With management's outlook for negative comparable sales in October (which we expect to extend well into 2015), it's clear that recent menu and marketing initiatives have not had the success management anticipated.
To confront these issues, management unveiled a new global approach "to increase its relevance with customers and drive guest traffic," including a modernized restaurant experience and a comprehensive digital ordering, payments, and marketing strategy. McDonald's also outlined new initiatives designed to improve U.S. operations, including a more nimble organization with decisions made closer to the customer; revamped marketing emphasizing food quality; and a simplified yet customizable menu balancing core items and locally relevant choices. While we view each of these initiatives as appropriate, execution and timing remain questions and we believe investors should not expect an overnight turnaround.
We'll wait for additional details regarding turnaround plans before finalizing our model, but third-quarter results will likely result in a slight reduction to our $98 fair value estimate. We're also planning to review the brand intangible asset component of our wide moat and stable trend rating as well as our Exemplary equity stewardship rating, which factors in three-year cash return targets of $18 million-$21 million, but not recent execution issues.
Bull og Bear scenarier for McDonald's:
Bulls say
- By 2015, management believes franchisees can account for 20%-25% of China restaurants compared with 15% in 2013. We believe this will help bring APMEA margins closer to other divisions and supports our longer-term margin forecasts.
- Despite an influx of new entrants, we believe McDonald's can remain the dominant player in the QSR breakfast category, which accounts for 25% of its U.S. sales but 35%-40% of operating profits.
- With a dividend yield around 3%, McDonald's is suitable for income investors looking for more defensive exposure to an expanding global middle class, in our view.
Bears say
- The global QSR industry is fiercely competitive, marked by a history of price wars. The explosive growth of the fast-casual category could make it more difficult for McDonald's to stand out among a more affluent millennial audience.
- Food commodity and labor cost volatility and foreign currency movements could disrupt McDonald's quarter-to-quarter results.
- Bankruptcies among quick-service franchisees increase during recessions. High food, energy, and labor costs are a concern, and tighter credit markets could constrain growth among smaller franchisees.
©2014 Morningstar. All rights reserved. The information, data, analyses, and opinions contained herein (1) are proprietary to Morningstar, Inc. and its affiliates (collectively, “Morningstar”), (2) may not be copied or redistributed, (3) do not constitute investment advice offered by Morningstar (4) are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security, and (5) are not warranted to be accurate, complete, or timely. Certain information may be self-reported by the investment vehicle and not subject to independent verification. Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages, or other losses resulting from, or related to, this information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
:quality(80)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/morningstar/AGAGH4NDF5FCRKXQANXPYS6TBQ.png)
.jpg)
